With less than a month before the 2026 general election, former Governor Roy Cooper is likely to become North Carolina’s next U.S. Senator. In the October edition of the Carolina Forward Poll, former Governor Cooper has a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent, former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. This marks the first time Cooper has led by double digits in the Carolina Forward Poll.
The Whatley campaign recently announced it was suspending all television advertising statewide, a signal that the campaign may be running out of steam. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican Super PAC supporting GOP candidates nationwide, also confirmed it is retreating from the race. Absent a major upheaval, former Governor Roy Cooper is likely to become North Carolina’s next U.S. Senator.
In the closely-watched race for North Carolina’s state supreme court, incumbent Justice Anita Earls has widened her lead over Republican State Rep. Sarah Stevens from 4 points in May to 9 points today:
The race for the state supreme court is seen as pivotal in North Carolina’s long struggle with partisan gerrymandering. The current Republican majority on the court has repeatedly protected the Republican partisan gerrymander of North Carolina’s Congressional and legislative election maps, which heavily suppress Democrats.
If they hold Justice Anita Earls’ seat, Democrats would only need to flip 2 of 3 seats up for re-election in 2028 to regain control of the court, which would likely mean striking down the partisan gerrymander.
The pattern of Democratic advantage continues on the state legislative generic ballot, which is unchanged from the August edition at a 7-point Democratic edge:
Part of what’s driving the Democratic generic ballot edge is the continued drop in Donald Trump’s job approval as President. The October edition of the Poll finds Trump with a (-17) net job approval rating, his worst on record in the poll since becoming president. This has been a steady trend since early 2025, and shows no sign of leveling out.
Not surprisingly, a bipartisan swath of North Carolina voters have soured on one of the Trump administration’s signature policies: tariffs. By a wide margin, North Carolina voters say that the Trump administration’s tariffs have hurt the U.S. economy, with a large plurality saying it has hurt it “a lot.”
While the Trump administration’s Iran War was not included on the poll, other polling from around the state and nation have found similarly bipartisan opposition to the administration’s choice to go to war, and particularly its impact on gas prices.
There is also bipartisan agreement on a topic of broad interest across North Carolina: automated license plate reader cameras (ALPRs), also known as Flock/Axon cameras. By a 2:1 margin, voters say they oppose their local police using the technology due to privacy concerns.
This poses an awkward challenge for the leaders of North Carolina’s state legislature, who voted this July to authorize the massive expansion of Flock camera surveillance on state highways and roads.
North Carolina’s electoral environment this fall is a microcosm of the national one: voters are deeply angry at state and national leadership, across the political spectrum, and are looking for change. The Carolina Forward Poll largely aligns with other public survey research that indicates a large voter correction coming this fall. The only question is: how large will it be, and how far down the ballot it will reach? No one knows the answer for sure, but make no mistake: a wave is about to crash.
Methodology
The full toplines report and crosstabs are available for review. The Carolina Forward Poll was conducted by Change Research, who surveyed 829 North Carolina likely general election voters from October 1-7, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.
