Summary:
- Tuesday’s election will help answer three big questions looming over North Carolina politics
- North Carolina is experiencing a political shift – but in which direction?
- 2024 could be a watershed moment for North Carolina politics
As North Carolina barrels toward what promises to be another down-to-the-wire election, political observers are watching closely for hints about what the 2024 election says about our state’s future. While the presidential race has naturally drawn the most attention, races all the way down North Carolina’s ballot – for the Council of State, the General Assembly, our state’s judiciary and county and local races – will have a profound impact on the future of freedom and the rule of law in the State of North Carolina.
There are three major questions about North Carolina’s political future that this Tuesday’s election will (hopefully) help resolve. Their answers will largely shape North Carolina’s political future for the forseeable future.
Which path is NC on?
North Carolina sits at a crossroads in “sunbelt” politics. To our north, Virginia has transformed from a reliable Republican stronghold into a light blue state where Republicans now struggle to compete statewide. Further to our south, Florida has done the opposite, with Republicans building a formidable advantage in what was once the ultimate swing state.
Which of these paths does North Carolina resemble – if either? The record of recent statewide races offer little clarity. North Carolina has voted for Republican Presidential candidates all but once since 1976. Yet Democrats remain strongly competitive in statewide races, having won 7 of of the last 8 gubernatorial races (and, in all likelihood, yet another one this year). North Carolina famously has not elected a Republican as Attorney General since 1896. Democrats regularly hold their own in Council of State races, yet they have also lost every statewide judicial election for the last two cycles.
North Carolina Republicans are nationally renowned for their aggressive partisan gerrymanders of the state’s legislative and congressional districts, which have made it virtually impossible for Democrats to win governing power commensurate with the voters’ will. This has the effect of making Democrats look less competitive on the state level than they truly are. But in fact, North Carolina Democrats are already over-performing their national baseline performance in the state, and competing – often successfully – in districts drawn with built-in partisan advantages for their Republican opponents. This pattern is likely to continue, and suggests actual advantages that are being hidden beneath the latest oppressive Republican gerrymander.
This year, with control of the White House, Governor’s mansion, and several crucial Council of State offices all hanging in the balance, North Carolina voters will have multiple opportunities to once again clearly signal their preferences. The margins in these races could tell us whether voters statewide are continuing a Virginia-style realignment, or a Florida retrenchment.
What do new voters want?
North Carolina’s population boom shows no signs of slowing, with the state projected to add roughly another 1 million residents by 2030. Right-wing partisans typically claim that these newcomers are mostly blue-state refugees fleeing high taxes, but as usual, the reality is quite different. State-to-state migration data shows that Florida actually sends more new residents to North Carolina than any other state, followed by Virginia and South Carolina. This matters because it upends assumptions about how migration patterns might reshape our politics. North Carolina is drawing new residents from states experiencing their own complex political realignments.
Understanding how these new North Carolinians vote could be key to predicting the state’s political future. Are Florida transplants bringing that state’s rightward shift with them, or fleeing it? Do Virginia migrants reflect that state’s recent Democratic lean? As most people instinctively know, most people do not move because of their personal politics at all. But the voting patterns these new residents bring with them could be decisive in close statewide races – and 2024 will offer our first real look at their impact.
Does weirdness carry a cost?
The historic collapse of Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson’s gubernatorial campaign would seem like proof that there are still real electoral consequences for political extremism, not to mention repulsive personal conduct. Indeed, Robinson’s loud and proud history of grossly offensive statements and disgraceful personal conduct proved too toxic even for many reliable Republican voters.
Yet further down the ballot, polls suggest that Republican candidates with records of similar far-right extremism like Dan Bishop and Michele Morrow have not suffered the same electoral penalty. This disconnect between the top of the ticket and down-ballot races raises interesting questions about voter behavior. Are North Carolina voters actually more willing to tolerate extremism further down the ballot? Or are they simply less aware of these candidates at all? Does it follow that downballot candidates enjoy greater license to pander to the fringe by indulging in extremist politics without electoral consequences?
The final margins in these races, versus the Governor’s race, may tell us whether there’s still a meaningful electoral penalty for “weird,” extremist politics in North Carolina. The answer could reshape both parties’ candidate recruitment and campaign strategies for years to come. If voters reject extremism up and down the ballot, it could force a course correction in North Carolina Republican politics. If they don’t, we are likely to see even more candidates following the Michele Morrow playbook.
The Proof Is In the Results
While polling data and demographic research can tell us a great deal about North Carolina’s changing political landscape, election results are where the rubber hits the road. The 2024 election cycle, with its mix of high-profile statewide races and competitive down-ballot contests, is another valuable opportunity to take the state’s political temperature during a heady era of shifting national politics. On Wednesday morning, we may finally have some more clarity about where North Carolina is really headed – and what that means for the future of not just our state’s politics, but the nation’s as a whole. Hold on to your hat.
