With the 2026 midterm election approaching, the August edition of the Carolina Forward Poll suggests that North Carolina is no exception to the “blue wave” building across the country. From the race for U.S. Senate to the state legislature, a majority of voters, driven largely by a realignment of independents, are demonstrating their impatience with incumbents and policies coming out of Washington D.C.
In the race for U.S. Senate, former Governor Roy Cooper holds a durable lead well outside the margin of error. The Carolina Forward Poll shows Cooper with a 7-point lead over former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, 50% to 43%. This result is virtually unchanged from the May edition of the poll, when Cooper led Whatley 49% to 42%. Of particular note, the former Governor enjoys a 20-point lead among suburban voters, and a 28-point lead among independents.
Roy Cooper also maintains a positive favorability among North Carolina voters. His net favorability is +2, with 44% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Michael Whatley, by contrast, sits at a net-negative favorability of (-8), with 29% favorable and 37% unfavorable. 17% of voters say they’ve never heard of Whatley.
The static environment looks similar in the state legislature. Democrats hold a 7-point lead over Republicans in the state legislative generic ballot, 48% to 41%, which is also virtually the same as it stood in May (47% to 41%). The August edition shows Democrats drawing almost even among male voters, 45% to 46%, while maintaining a large lead among women.
At least one driver of the deteriorating environment for Republicans is the steady decline of Donald Trump’s job approval among voters outside his hardcore base. The President’s job approval is now (-14), with 42% approving and 56% disapproving. This compares to (-12) favorability in May, and (-6) in January. Donald Trump is already at near-historic levels of unpopularity with American voters overall.
U.S. Senators Thom Tillis and Ted Budd also rate poorly with North Carolina voters, as well as the North Carolina state legislature itself, which voters judge extremely poorly, at (-23) net job approval.
By contrast, Governor Josh Stein remains extremely popular statewide. Governor Stein maintains +6 net approval (48% approve, 42% disapprove), though this figure has narrowed since May, when it was +16 (51/35).
The unpopularity of the Trump presidency is likely to be connected to how voters rate his performance on a key issue: the economy and the cost of living. The Trump administration has a major problem on its hands there. Not unlike the Biden administration before it, most voters now blame the Trump administration for the rising cost of living.
Not only do nearly twice as many voters blame the Trump administration (35%) than the Biden administration (18%) for the cost of living, but nearly all of that 18% are already Republican base voters. After the two presidential administrations, the next-largest culprits voters name are corporate greed (15%) and political corruption (14%).
Stepping back, the August edition of the Carolina Forward Poll suggests North Carolina is in for a historic “blue wave” election. While the major horserace matchups could always tighten between now and November, the political environment remains very positive for the Democrats, who are running with the wind - and most voters - behind them.
Methodology:
The full toplines report and crosstabs are available for public. The Carolina Forward Poll was conducted by Change Research, who surveyed 915 North Carolina likely general election voters from August 3-6, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
