Summary:
- North Carolina thrived economically under the Biden administration
- Across almost every measurable economic indicator, the state grew significantly
- North Carolina’s progress is imperiled now by political revenge politics
North Carolina has been one of the fastest-growing states in the country for many years running, and under former President Joe Biden’s administration, this pattern continued unabated between 2021 to 2025. For all the enormous challenges the country faced during that time period, North Carolina’s growth not only continued, but actually accelerated. By essentially every major indicator – state GDP, median household income, unemployment rates, and general population growth – North Carolina continued on its positive trajectory, buoyed by wise executive leadership and sound economic policy.
As America readies for a possible economic recession and likely economic turbulence from the new Trump administration’s trade policy, memories of the the four years of strong economic recovery under the Biden-Harris era will likely experience an improvement. The reason why is in the numbers.
Economic Recovery and Growth
The Biden administration entered the office as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to rage across the country, leaving death, illness, and economic dislocation in its wake. When President Biden took office in January 2021, approximately 3,000 Americans were still dying every single day from COVID, making it the single biggest cause of death in the country. The COVID pandemic under President Trump significantly slowed North Carolina’s state GDP growth. In 2020, the state’s real GDP (that is, the inflation-adjusted measure of all economic output) contracted by 1.3%, down from respectable 2% growth in 2019.
From 2021 to 2025, North Carolina’s economy has significantly expanded. While official figures for North Carolina’s 2024 real GDP are not yet available, an estimate from the North Carolina Economic Forecast from UNC Charlotte suggests that the final figure is likely to be about 3.5% growth for the year. If that proves approximately accurate, it would represent a whopping 10% growth in real GDP in only the last 4 years.
This recovery from economic collapse under Trump has notably included major new investments in new technology, energy, and advanced manufacturing. The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act spurred major new private investment in labor-intensive manufacturing projects, totaling approximately $21 billion in total investment and over 12,000 new jobs just in North Carolina.
Jobs, Unemployment, and Income
The North Carolina labor market has greatly improved in the last four years, due mostly to the state’s sustained economic growth. The state’s unemployment rate has dropped from 5.6% in January 2021 (down from its peak of 14.2% in April of 2020) to 3.7% in December 2024, the latest for which data is available. The Biden administration’s decision to emphasize job creation through infrastructure investments and manufacturing incentives was a direct factor that contributed to the positive growth outcome.
According to the Brooks Pierce North Carolina Economic Development Report, over $15 billion in direct private investment landed in North Carolina’s economy in 2024 alone, creating more than 14,000 new jobs. As businesses recovered and expanded in the post-pandemic period, North Carolina benefited from higher-paying jobs and a more inclusive labor market, which then helped many working families rise to a better standard of living.
As of this writing, full-year figures for median household income for 2024 are unavailable. But if we use only 2023 numbers instead, then the 3 full years (2021, 2022 and 2023) saw a 13.5% increase in North Carolina median household income (from $60,430 at the end of 2020 to $68,610 in 2023). This, alone, is larger than the four years prior (2017 through 2020), which saw a 12.4% increase. If we extrapolate from the 2020 to 2023 trend, and conservatively estimate a 4% annual growth in 2024, then that would suggest a four-year increase of approximately 18% in median household income in North Carolina, sizably outpacing inflation and leaving our state’s workers much better-off.
Population Growth and Housing Demand
Population growth is an important indicator to consider, not only because a growing state increases economic opportunity, but because it represents people voting with their feet in their choice of where to live. Since 2020, North Carolina has exceeded population growth projections, and is now estimated to have more than 11 million residents, adding an average of 142,000 per year since 2020. North Carolina is now the 9th-largest state in the country, behind Georgia (8th) and Ohio (7th), and is likely to surpass both of them in the coming years. According to Census data, most new movers to North Carolina are coming from Florida, South Carolina, New York, Virginia and Georgia, in that order.
This growth not only highlights North Carolina’s reasonable (but quickly rising) cost of living, but also a more moderate political climate and less exposure to extreme weather events, particularly as seen in Florida.
With population growth, however, the state’s housing challenges have continued to worsen. North Carolina’s job-rich metro areas are not producing enough housing to meet demand, which has driven costs up. This is a challenge seen nationwide.
Looking Ahead
North Carolina’s performance under the Biden administration was strongly positive, leading to a growing economy that produced higher-paying jobs for a thriving state. The economic recovery from Trump’s mishandling of COVID was faster, and more widely sustained, than almost any economic experts hoped for in early 2021. In time, it will be remembered as a significant triumph of sensible, informed economic policymaking.
As North Carolina looks to 2025 and beyond, the state remains well-positioned – but threats remain on the horizon. The Trump administration’s early actions to slash support for infrastructure, technological research and basic healthcare, not to mention the painful impacts of new import taxes on American consumers, could dent the state’s progress and even partially reverse it. If it hopes to match the same growth achievements as their predecessors, the new Trump team will have its work cut out for them.
