Summary:
- Most statewide political polling in North Carolina is tied
- The state’s 2024 electorate will be slightly younger and more urban
- Both Presidential candidates have clear paths to victory
As we approach the 2024 presidential election, North Carolina once again finds itself in the spotlight as a key battleground state. From the Presidential race on down, there are tantalizingly close and hard-fought races across this year’s ballot. Making high-confidence political predictions in a state renowned for its nail-bitingly close races is a humility-building exercise, and this year will be no different.
As we enter the first full week early voting in North Carolina, here is what we know for sure.
Polling is (mostly) tied
We can start with what we know: polls show almost every statewide race in North Carolina locked in a statistical tie. The final Carolina Forward polling average showed Kamala Harris and Donald Trump dead even. There is, of course, one notable exception in the governor’s race, where Josh Stein has a commanding lead over Mark Robinson. Analysts differ about whether Stein is likely to win by “only” 5-6 points, or by double digits (as polling averages currently show), but one thing is clear: Mark Robinson is very unlikely to ever be Governor of North Carolina.
Beyond the gubernatorial race, virtually every statewide race in the state is literally or essentially tied according to all available polling, which isn’t very helpful. But there’s another angle worth exploring: the change in North Carolina’s electorate itself since 2020.
A Younger, More Urban Electorate
Credit goes to Dr. Michael Bitzer at his blog, Old North State Politics, for his analysis of voter registration data that contributed to the charts below. Note: “Voter pool” refers to the total number of registered voters. This is different than the “electorate,” which only refers to those voters who actually cast a ballot in an election. The total “electorate” is thus some proportion of the “voter pool.”
One of the most significant changes we’ve seen in North Carolina’s voter pool is a generational shift. Compared to 2020, the proportion of voters from the Silent and Baby Boomer generations has declined as a share of the whole, while Gen-Z and Millennial voters have gained significant ground. While older voters famously have higher voter turnout than younger ones, the sheer numerical shift means we’ll see fewer of them overall in 2024.
Along with this generational shift, a geographic one is happening too. Urban voters will make up about 6% more of the electorate compared to 2020, while suburban voters – still the largest bloc at nearly half the electorate – will decrease by about 5%. Perhaps most striking is the continued decline of rural voting power: rural voters will make up under 20% of North Carolina’s electorate in 2024, a 3% drop from 2020.
These shifts are significant because age and geography are increasingly reliable predictors of voting behavior. Younger, urban voters tend to lean more Democratic, while older, rural voters skew Republican. Of course, these categories are never set in stone, and political coalitions are always fluid. Nevertheless, broad patterns are clear.
The Geographic Tilt
In politics, as in real estate, location is everything. And in North Carolina, as in most other states, the counties that are gaining population – and thus, voting power – are overwhelmingly trending Democratic.
Consider the top 10 counties that have increased their share of the state’s total voter pool since 2020. These counties shifted toward the Democratic Presidential candidate from the 2016 to 2020 election by an average of 3 points (ranging from a 1.9 point shift towards Republicans in Franklin county to a big 6.4 point shift in Union). Continued shifts in voting behavior in counties that are gaining voters will have an electoral impact.
This is local evidence of a broader political realignment trend seen nationwide. Not only are North Carolina’s rapidly-growing metro areas attracting residents who tend to vote Democratic, but existing residents already in those areas are also trending rapidly leftward. Meanwhile, many rural areas are losing population, and with it, political influence. In a state where elections are often decided by razor-thin margins, those shifts could be decisive.
It all comes down to turnout
At the end of the day, elections are ultimately decided by who shows up to vote. This is where things get tricky for both parties. For Donald Trump to win North Carolina again, he cannot only rely on very strong turnout white rural voters. He’ll also need to make some inroads with younger, urban voters, a demographic that has been moving away from the Republican Party. He may well do that, but it presents a challenge.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has a different challenge. The demographic trends might be working in Democrats’ favor, but they’ll only matter if those younger, urban voters actually turn out – which they often do not. Like any Democratic candidate, Harris also relies on a far more diverse, and often fractious, coalition of voters to win. If that coalition turns out to vote, her path to victory is clear; but even small defections in that coalition could be prohibitive.
The broadest trends suggest that North Carolina is on a path of realignment towards the Democrats. But politics is full of surprises, coalitions change, and four years is an eternity in political time. Republicans have shown remarkable resilience in North Carolina, consistently over-performing Democrats in turnout and with the full power of the gerrymandered legislature on their side.
In the end, the outcome of this year’s election in North Carolina could well decide the Presidency. In just 15 days, we’ll find out just how far North Carolina’s realignment has progressed.
