Summary:
- North Carolina’s aging population and shrinking youth workforce threaten the state’s long-term economic stability and ability to support future retirees.
- Many counties are facing stagnant or declining populations, creating rising costs, weaker public services, and a worsening quality of life.
- Without bold policies to improve affordability and restore economic optimism, North Carolina risks continued decline in both workforce strength and community vitality.
Few people dream of working until they drop dead. Most of us would like to retire someday. Our ability to do so depends on two things: a fair economy that will support us during our retirement, and a new generation of workers who can fill our place in the system when we retire. Unfortunately, both of these pillars are at risk due to our state’s economic mismanagement and a concerning shift in our age demographics.
In May of 2023, then-Governor Roy Cooper issued an Executive Order directing the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services to develop a multisector plan for aging. A quarter of the state’s population is 60+. Of North Carolina’s 100 counties, 88 have more people aged 65+ than they do children 18 or younger. And across most of our state, the youth population is on track to shrink over the next twenty years while the proportion of older residents grows.
The most up-to-date population projections anticipate the share of North Carolinians who are 65+ growing from 18% today to 21% by 2040. The share of residents aged 18-44 will drop 1%, and the share aged 0-17 will undergo a sharp 3% contraction during the same period.
When counties aren’t growing, they face strong financial headwinds. Inflation pushes costs up, and most government services and operations depend on population growth to keep cost rates low as inflation rises. The only alternative is to cut services, which worsens health, safety, and quality of life for residents as essential services lose reliability, reduce hours and coverage, and in some cases stop operating altogether.
And many of North Carolina’s counties are projected to see anemic growth, or even decline, over the next twenty years–a reflection of our state’s ongoing failure to make an economy that works for everyone, and not just for wealthy residents in large urban cities. You can view the full projections here.
Steady, respectable growth for a county would average to about a 1% increase annually. A thriving community might average growth at 2-3% annually. A stagnant county would average between 0-1% annually, which is where the US average for all counties falls, at 0.29%. All of these counties have cause for concern, but the biggest economic headwinds are facing Halifax (-16%), Hertford (-17%), Hyde (-22%), Martin (-18%), Scotland (-12%), and Washington (-19%).
What could help slow and reverse this trend? A laser focus in our General Assembly on policies that improve affordability and that promote economic optimism. We can make life more affordable by adopting pro-housing policies in towns and cities, creating plentiful housing at diverse prices, for rent or for sale, close to schools, jobs, and amenities. Effective and fair regulation of our energy prices can control monthly costs, as can more affordable transportation options and strong local food networks that bring down costs.
Economic optimism is harder. It depends on a real vision and on good storytelling. In recent years, we’ve seen little to be optimistic about: North Carolina’s hard-won reputation as a leader in public education has been jeopardized by stagnant wages, a private school voucher scheme, and steadily growing deferred maintenance for public facilities. As the economy changes around us, the most influential state legislators have spent their time fighting to legalize casinos and gambling operations that will bleed ordinary North Carolinians dry when their incomes are already low. Our steadily decreasing corporate taxes are great news for wealthy shareholders across the nation, but reduce the revenue the state needs to provide great services, like a functional DMV and a quick, affordable, efficient medical system, while doing nothing to improve the bottom line for North Carolina workers whose wages aren’t keeping up with inflation.
Without bold action to increase affordability and promote a real economic vision, North Carolina will continue to see shrinking counties and an aging population–without the new workers needed to fill jobs when our current workers hope to retire.
