Summary:
- Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied in North Carolina
- Josh Stein has taken a commanding lead in the Governor’s race
- Most statewide campaigns are virtually tied, with a slight Democratic lean
In the last 90 days before the 2024 election, North Carolina is – once again – coming right down to the wire.
The August edition of the Carolina Forward Poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat, tied at 46% each, with 6% undecided. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy draws 2%. This represents an improvement for both sides, but particularly for the Democrats. The May edition of the Carolina Forward Poll had then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden at 43% to Donald Trump’s 45%.
The shakeup in the Democratic nomination has jolted the Presidential race nationwide, drawing renewed enthusiasm from many voters. This is the first Carolina Forward Poll to feature Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee.
In the 2020 election, Donald Trump's winning margin in North Carolina was the smallest of any state he won: just 1.4%, or about 73,000 votes. His margin in North Carolina fell 50% from 2016, when he won by about 3.6%. That trajectory appears to be continuing into the 2024 election. Should that shift continue, the final Presidential result in North Carolina will be extremely close, giving either candidate an equal shot at the state's 16 electoral votes. Should Kamala Harris successfully flip North Carolina, it would be the first time any Democrat had done so since 2008, and would almost certainly be decisive in the election.
Turning to the Governor's race, North Carolina is witnessing a historic collapse of a major party candidate. The August edition of the poll finds Josh Stein with a commanding 10-point lead over Republican candidate Mark Robinson. This represents a 7-point drop from the May edition of the poll, which had Robinson at 43 points, and yet more steady progress for Stein, who improves by 2 more points.
As we've written about before, Mark Robinson's campaign has suffered not from being defined by his opponent, but from Robinson's vocal and longstanding definition of himself as a far-right extremist. That very notoriety, in fact, is what led him to cruise to victory in the Republican primary without any credible opposition. Josh Stein, by contrast, has run a highly competent, drama-free campaign, with obvious results.
Mark Robinson could still have a path to victory, but it is quickly narrowing. A more likely possibility is that Robinson is following the same familiar pattern as Pennsylvania's Doug Mastriano or Virginia's Corey Stewart - extremist, far-right candidates who thrilled a radicalized Republican base, but which most people find repellent. Mark Robinson could now be looking at underperforming Dan Forest's 4.5-point loss to Roy Cooper in 2020 - or even Walter Dalton's 11.5-point loss to Pat McCrory in 2012.
Moving down the ballot, every statewide race is quite close, with a slight average Democratic lean of 1-2 points:
- On the state legislative generic ballot, Democrats and Republicans are tied at 44 points each
- For North Carolina Supreme Court, Allison Riggs leads Jefferson Griffin by 1 point (41 to 40)
- For Lt. Governor, Rachel Hunt leads Hal Weatherman by 2 points (40 to 38)
- For Attorney General, Jeff Jackson leads Dan Bishop by 2 points (42 to 40)
- For Superintendent of Schools, Mo Green leads Michele Morrow by 3 points (42 to 39)
- For Commissioner of Labor, Braxton Winston and Luke Farley are tied at 40 points each
- For Commissioner of Agriculture, Steve Troxler leads Sarah Taber by 4 points (43 to 39)
- For Commissioner of Insurance, Mike Causey leads Natasha Marcus by 1 point (40 to 39)
- For State Auditor, Jessica Holmes leads Dave Boliek by 4 points (41 to 37)
- For State Treasurer, Wesley Harris leads Brad Briner by 1 point (41 to 40)
These results, showing an extremely close election across the ballot, should not come as a surprise. North Carolina's slow, but clear, political realignment continues apace.
The Carolina Forward Poll's final edition for this election cycle will come out in mid-October.
Readers can review full toplines and crosstab results.
